与前两轮周期不同,本轮上行不再依赖个人消费端需求,而是以企业级AI资本开支为核心。韩华投资证券分析师Park Jun-young在 2 月 24 日发布的一份报告中预测,2026年全球存储市场规模将比上年增长159%,达到5749亿美元,是2018年1599亿美元的3.6倍。 具体而言,他预测DRAM市场将同比增长 192%,达到4399亿美元,NAND市场将增长 88%,达到1350亿美元。
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Consider the energy crunch: Global data-center power demand will more than double by 2030, per the International Energy Agency, forcing upgrades to grids, water systems, and connectivity. China’s state grids are embarking on a 5 trillion yuan ($722 billion) expansion explicitly for AI and data centers that is equivalent to 4% of GDP, according to Moody’s. The Qatar Investment Authority has announced a project worth $20 billion (9% of the nation’s GDP), to develop AI data centers and computing infrastructure. And in Korea, despite AI-related spending only accounting for 0.4% of GDP, the country’s recently established sovereign wealth fund is almost exclusively targeted at high-tech industries including AI and chips, while planning to deploy a war chest worth 5.7% of GDP over the next five years.